Nintendo's predictions "highly unrealistic", says Pachter

Nintendo's expectation of selling four games per Wii U console this financial year is a bit ambitious, according to industry analyst Michael Pachter.

"Guidance for 24 million Wii U software units in FY:13 implies an attach rate of over four games, which we view as highly unrealistic given pricing and release slate," Pachter said in a note reacting to Nintendo's updated fiscal outlook, as reported by GameIndustry.

The analyst said the Wii U has a tough holiday season ahead because it's going up against the triple-A lineups of other consoles, the iPad Mini and new Kindle Fire HD, but did note that the new console's software looks good.

"The launch schedule is better than we had initially expected, with notable launch day titles including Activision Blizzard's Call of Duty: Black Ops II, EA Sports' FIFA Soccer 13, Nintendo's New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, and Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed III and ZombiU," he said.

"However, demand will probably wane once Nintendo's core fan base has purchased the first 5 - 6 million units, negatively impacting long-term hardware and software sales as well."

On the back of a poor quarter, Nintendo expects to shift 5.5 million Wii U consoles before March 31; the new console launches in November.