Full-game downloads to account for 50% of console sales by 2019, says Pachter

Full-game downloads will only account for 50 percent of console sales by 2019, according to the massive report Michael Pachter sent over yesterday.

The Wedbush Morgan Securities novel reckons that full downloads won't happen until console drives get bigger. Games can exceed 10Gb and most Xbox 360 consoles in homes have only 20Gb hard drive space because not as many people own a 120Gb Elite.

"In ten years, we envision a world where the typical console has a terabyte or more of storage, and where full game downloads are the norm," it states.

"There will always be a sizable number of consumers who value the trade-in option and portability, and we expect those consumers to favor physical goods over digital downloads. Thus, we expect that digital downloads will represent less that 50 per cent of total game sales in ten years' time.

"We think that the poster child for this scenario is Grand Theft Auto IV on the Xbox 360, a game first sold in physical form, with additional levels sold periodically thereafter through downloads. After a tepid embrace of its first downloadable episode, Take-Two decided to offer the first and second episodes in a combined physical package, with the two episodes allowing full game play without the purchase of the original GTA IV game disc.

"This model reinforces our belief that packaged goods will capture the majority of game purchases for the next ten years."

The report also states that used games account for one-third of the market, proving that comsumers prefer to have a physical copy instead of a digital one.