Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, and Dragon Age: 2014's holiday showdowns
This year pits some of the hottest properties in gaming against each other. What's the line-up? Who will win? Has anything got a chance of outselling Call of Duty? We break it down.
Destiny (September) vs Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel (October) vs Evolve (October) vs Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (November) vs Halo: The Master Chief Collection (November) vs Far Cry 4 (November)
With Battlefield: Hardline slipping to 2015 it's easy to imagine that Advanced Warfare is the only shooter we're getting. We tend to think of the end-of-year shooter showdown as "Call of Duty versus whatever EA fronts". As with most years, that's simply not true - the shooter genre is one of the most crowded, and there's loads to choose from.
This year the real battle is once again for second place to Call of Duty, which is a pretty prestigious consolation prize.
We still expect Advanced Warfare to sell the most strongly, of course, because Call of Duty is one of the few franchises apart from Grand Theft Auto that can be relied upon to regularly churn up sales figures in the tens of millions. That said, Ghosts didn't do quite as well as Black Ops 2, so maybe next year or the year after we'll have a different champion in this category.
Anyway, this year the real battle is once again for second place to Call of Duty, which is a pretty prestigious consolation prize. And what a line-up we have! Let's examine each of our champions in turn.
Destiny is the first off the bat, and it's one we're really excited about. Activision has been both generous and canny with its marketing, and the hype is through the roof. A genuinely excellent alpha and beta test has certainly helped; unless the Xbox end of things goes wildly wrong, Destiny has already proved to a huge number of people that's it's a hell of a game, and that the shared-worlds shooter is a genre with legs. If Bungie can just not fumble launch day, we expect this to really go places. It has a head start on the competition launching a few weeks earlier, too; by the time the holiday scuffle really starts, Destiny might have gathered serious momentum.
2K has two entrants in October but they're quire different. Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel is going to be more of the same, and that's a good thing that fans of the series will enjoy, and are unlikely to pass up. It won't do as well as a Gearbox-developed sequel would have, though; whether it's a true thing or not, the studio change and interim timeline make it feel a little bit filler. Borderlands 2 sold absolutely gangbusters though, so if the hype machine kicks off at launch we may be proved merrily wrong.
Evolve is quite an exciting prospect. Turtle Rock made one of the best co-op shooter experiences ever, and now it's doing it again, with a formula it's been thinking up since the team got together. Four versus one, where one is a great big monster and the four are an arrangement of differentiated classes, each with several variants? That sounds amazing. Is it too high concept for the general gaming public, who still think the idea of killstreaks is legendary? Maybe. But we expect the message to spread, slowly but surely.
The smaller install base of the Xbox One will hinder it, but come on, it’s Halo: the Xbox One install base will grow to accommodate it.
Halo: the Master Chief Collection is definitely going to sell hugely because there's not a Master Chief fanboy in the world who doesn't want every Halo game again, playable with their Xbox Live friends, and slightly less likely to make their eyes bleed in repulsion at outdated graphics. The smaller install base of the Xbox One will hinder it, but come on, it's Halo: the Xbox One install base will grow to accommodate it.
Finally, there's Far Cry 4. Far Cry 3 brought the series out of cult classic territory and into the magical realms of blockbuster, and Ubisoft seems to have nailed down what it was that made that happen. It's gonna happen again, for sure.
This is such a strong field that it's hard to make a call, but I gotta say; I think Acti's gonna make it two for two with Advanced Warfare and Destiny occupying the top spots on the charts by the end of the year.
Disney Infinity 2.0: Marvel Super Heroes (September) vs Skylanders: Trap Team (October) vs LittleBigPlanet 3 (November)
Good old kids games (that we play ourselves). Disney Infinity is a new series, while Skylanders has several best-selling releases under its belt. That could influence things either way. On the one hand, established properties have an advantage, but on the other, franchise fatigue is a constant threat. Disney has a hell of a draw card with its catalogue of properties, and throwing Marvel into the mix certainly doesn't undercut that.
Activision clammed up. That certainly doesn’t suggest Skylanders left its rival in the dust – quite the opposite.
Last time the two franchises went head to head their sales figures came out fairly equal over the holiday period, but we don't know how things went after that because Activision clammed up. That certainly doesn't suggest Skylanders left its rival in the dust - quite the opposite.
If we charitably assume the last two entrants sold an equal amount, then I'm tipping Disney Infinity to take the prize this time. This time around, Disney has an established fan and install base to grow from, while Skylanders is likely to have approached saturation point.
Next: racers, RPGs, horror and action adventure.
Forza Horizon 2 (September) vs DriveClub (October) vs The Crew (November)
New hardware is all about car games, which is why Microsoft got Forza 4 out the door when the Xbox One hit. Sony wasn't so lucky with DriveClub, which it has serious ambitions for, but it's time for the showdown now.
We'd probably back the third contender, and if The Crew were a Need for Speed game I'd wager a reasonable sum on it.
This one's a very tricky call. Both Forza Horizon 2 and DriveClub are exclusives, which counts against them. Forza Horizon 2 is hot on the heels of Forza 4, which may put consumers off a little. DriveClub has been severely delayed and has generated a lot of confusion by being sort of but not really free-to-play for PlayStation Plus members.
Given these considerations, we'd probably back the third contender, and if The Crew were a Need for Speed game I'd wager a reasonable sum on it taking the crown. As it is, The Crew is a new property, which is always a risk, and is in many ways an MMO. So. You know. Anybody's guess, we're afraid. I'd probably put a modest amount on Forza Horizon 2, if pressed.
Dragon Age: Inquisition (November) vs Lords of the Fallen (October)
In RPGs we have a really interesting match-up, although we're not afraid to tip Dragon Age: Inquisition to win out over Lords of the Fallen. Dragon Age has the weight of the BioWare fandom, a recognised IP, and EA's marketing behind it, while Lords of the Fallen has, you know, none of that.
Despite the foregone conclusion, RPG fans would be well advised to check out Lords of the Fallen.
Despite the foregone conclusion, RPG fans would be well advised to check out Lords of the Fallen. It comes to us from Tomasz Gop, who was responsible for The Witcher 2: Assassin's of Kings. Gop has made no bones about what his intent is with Lords of the Fallen: to put together all the best bits from his favourite RPGs. Have you ever daydreamed about a game with the combat of X, the progression of Y, the world of Z, and so on...? That's Lords of the Fallen.
Inquisition is sounding great too, despite a recent slip from October to November. BioWare has admitted Dragon Age 2 was rushed out, and taken Inquisition much more seriously. Expect a huge, populated world, better romances, more meaningful player choice, and more.
Horror: Alien: Isolation (October) vs The Evil Within (October)
Bet you wondered where Alien: Isolation was when you read the big shooter showdown, hey? Well, we're stuffing it in horror because this shizzle is not a run-and-gun affair. Obviously after the disaster of Aliens: Colonial Marines we daren't make judgments until we've played it through 18 times and maybe also waited four years for the hype to die down, but the Creative Assembly is talking a really good talk about survival horror rather than shooter. Previews suggest it's managed to walk the wal- remember Colonial Marines, Brenna.
No matter how good The Evil Within is, we don't think it's going to stand up to the lure of the Alien IP.
Despite the hangover of Colonial Marines, we expect Alien: Isolation to sell strongly. The Evil Within is a cagier bet. It's a much more traditional horror experience, and it's a sad reality of the industry today that horror games just don't sell as well as other genres. If you squint, you can pretend Alien: Isolation is a shooter - it's first person, you do have weapons - but The Evil Within looks like precisely what it is: an old-school horror game.
Hopefully, those who love Shinji Mikami's legacy will buy in and justify Bethesda's faith in Tango Gameworks. But no matter how good The Evil Within is, we don't think it's going to be the kind of seller that stands up to the lure of the Alien IP.
Action adventure: Assassin's Creed: Unity (October) vs Sunset Overdrive (October)
We're offering up Sunset Overdrive against Assassin's Creed: Unity for two reasons. First, because it's a third-person action adventure with a lot of parkour, and there's nothing else that bears any resemblance to Assassin's Creed at all. That's probably why Assassin's Creed is selling gangbusters with six core releases under its belt, come to think of it.
We're cynical and we've been doing this a long time. You'll all buy Assassin's Creed.
Second, because something has to go up against the juggernaut, doesn't it? Sorry, Sunset Overdrive, but there's so much working against you. You're probably loads of fun, but you're a platform exclusive; launching in a hugely crowed period; and are a brand new IP from a company whose last few have been a bit, you know, ehhh.
We'd love to say Sunset Overdrive's energetic, colourful, creative action is going to capture the hearts and minds of gamers everywhere. But we're cynical and we've been doing this a long time. You'll all buy Assassin's Creed.
We're not soothsayers, but we're pretty confident in our guesses. Do you have counter-arguments? Let's hear 'em, then.